A few notes from Effectively Wild ep. 1464

New RBI statistics available for the first time on Baseball Reference:

• Whom the player drove in the most

• In other words, who scored the most runs off this player’s hits?

• Whom the player was most driven in by

• In other words, whose hits allowed this player to score the most runs?

• How many runners were on base across all their plate appearances
• How many RBIs the average player would have given some number of plate appearances
• Example:

Analysis of RBI stats for José Abreu, White Sox 1st baseman

• 
• Led the league in RBIs this season
• All the hitters with high OBP ahead of Abreu? This is what gave him such a large runners-on-base count of 465?
• Batters after him, most of whom had low OBP this year:

• Eloy Jimenez (DH)
• Daniel Palka (RF)
• James McCann (C)
• Yolmer Sanchez (2B)
• Yonder Alonso (1B)

Jerry Crasnick’s off-season interviews of GMs

• This journalist asked GMs tough questions, such as:

• Who is the better player?
• Which team is going to sign a given free-agent player?

• Looking at GMs’ responses over one decade, they were no more accurate than if they had simply been making random selections

Jesse Rogers’ off-season interviews of GMs

• Jesse Rogers has revived Crasnick’s style of interviews that ended a few years back after Crasnick went to work for the Player’s Association
• Rogers interviewed fifteen executives and baseball insiders

1. Which team will make the biggest splash of the off season?

• GM responses:

• Angels: 7
• Padres: 2
• Rangers: 2
• White Sox: 2
• Cubs: 1
• Yankees: 1

• To GMs, the “biggest splash” means that any given team signs two of the biggest players, such as Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, or Mookie Betts
• A splash goes beyond signing players; it is a re-assertion or redefinition of a team’s direction
• GMs might have missed some of the question’s nuances?
• Since the question was sent out, the White Sox already signed Yasmani Grandal
• Angels are short of free-agent pitchers, and have been connected to Cole in recent rumblings

2. Which of these three players is most likely to start next season with a new team: Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, or Kris Bryant?

• GM responses:

• Lindor: 8
• Bryant: 7
• Betts: 0

• Unexpected because the Red Sox have publicly expressed interest to trade Betts; however, at the same time, their motivation to do so is unclear
• Lindor potentially the most likely of the three because Cleveland is trying to save money and has been talking about trading some of their better players
• Limited number of teams would be able to pay for Mookie Betts, which may explain why he is not predicted to change teams

3. Anthony Rendon is the clear top hitter on the market; where will he land, and for how much?

• GM responses for team:

• Nationals: 13
• Rangers: 1
• Cardinals: 1

• GM responses for contract:

• Highest: 8 years and $280 million (from person who picked Rangers)
• Lowest: 6 years and $200 million (from person who picked Nationals)
• Average: 7 years and $227 million

4. Who is more likely to return to the Nationals: Stephen Strasburg or Anthony Rendon?

• GM responses:

• Rendon: 12
• Strasburg: 3

• Until fairly late in the season, Strasburg may not have been expecting to opt out of his contract
• Instead, potentially he would have used the opt-out as leverage to increase his pay while remaining on contract with the Nationals
• At the same time, lots of teams are looking for pitchers right now
• Popular belief prevails that players wait for an opportunity to return to their home region, which for Strasburg is the West (San Diego area).
• Rendon: perception of being “no-drama,” i.e., just to keep playing

5. Will Gerrit Cole get a $300 million deal: 1) definitely, 2) no chance, or 3) close, but under?

• GM responses:

• Definitely: 0
• No chance: 6
• Close, but under: 9

• Deal of that magnitude would be unprecedented
• Potential ulterior motive: are GMs underestimating the size of the contract in hopes of reducing Cole’s expectations?